In recent years, Grand Tours have become increasingly predictable. A small, untouchable elite has emerged that dominate the GC of races to such an extent that few even get a look in — so much so that of the 12 Grand Tours contested since the 2020 Vuelta a España, only three have been won by riders without multiple Grand Tour GC victories to their name.
Tadej Pogačar and Primož Roglič alone account for eight of the last 15 Grand Tour overall victories going back to the 2019 Vuelta, while their respective Visma-Lease a Bike and UAE Team Emirates teams have, along with Ineos Grenadiers, hoarded all the success, accounting for all but two Grand Tour titles in that time.
And things have become even more exclusive in recent years. First Visma-Lease a Bike became the first team in history to win all three Grand Tours in the same season, albeit with different riders in Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss. Now this year, the Grand Tours have become the sole domain of not just one team but one man, as Pogačar became not only the first man to achieve the Giro/Tour double in 26 years, and just the second man in that time to win back-to-back Grand Tours, but also did so by huge margins of victory.
All this is why the ongoing Vuelta has been such a breath of fresh air. Going into the final week, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the outcome will be. Can Ben O’Connor (Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale) continue to hang on to the red jersey? Will Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) continue in the ascendancy and claim another Vuelta title? Or could one of the in-form riders lurking just behind him on GC come to the fore in the final mountain stages? As things stand, all these scenarios feel plausible.
This Vuelta has felt like a throwback to the brief period before this current era, and after that of Chris Froome’s reign of supremacy. Remarkably, the seven Grand Tours that followed Froome’s final even overall title at the 2018 Giro d’Italia were won by seven different riders, each one a first-time overall winner (that list in full: Geraint Thomas, Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz, Egan Bernal, Primož Roglič, Tao Geoghegan Hart and Tadej Pogačar). While Roglič and Pogačar would go from being first-time winners to patrons of the peloton, at the time there was a real sense of openness to the racing, a feeling that, as no individual was head and shoulders above the rest, or had the kind of history and credentials to intimate the opposition, races were anyone’s to be won.
For the first time in a long, that same thrilling sense of unpredictability has been palpable at the Vuelta. While Roglič is present and still best poised to take overall victory, there are plenty of doubts surrounding him, and he looks far from the invisible force he has for previous Grand Tours.
And neither is Roglič’s new team exercising the kind of control he’s used from his time at Visma-Lease a Bike. Despite boasting an enviably strong roster of climbing talent, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe haven’t managed to keep their rivals in check, and as such much of the race has been a free-for-all of riders getting into dangerous breakaways — most significantly when Ben O’Connor gained so much time on stage six, but also in the cases of Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) on stage nine.
Neither are any of the established super-teams having things their own way. Visma-Lease a Bike’s GC hopes evaporated early as Sepp Kuss lost time, and since then they’ve pivoted to chasing stages with Wout van Aert; Ineos Grenadiers’ decline as a force has continued, with Carlos Rodríguez their best performing GC rider in an underwhelming eighth overall; and for all their strength on paper UAE Team Emirates have had to contend with João Almeida’s abandonment, pre-race internal tensions, and poor form, leaving them without a shot at the red jersey.
So as the Vuelta enters its endgame, can we expect the race to remain as open as it has been up until now, and treat us to a thrilling finale that lives up to the excitement of these past two weeks? The stage certainly seems set. For all his troubles in recent stages, Ben O’Connor remains in the red jersey, and his dream of keeping it all the way to Madrid is still on. Having managed to concede just 38 to Roglič yesterday on a summit as viscous as Cuitu Negru (a deficit reduced to just 18, after the Slovenian was docked 20 seconds for drafting his team car), then maybe he can retain the 1:03 he still has over him on tomorrow’s hard, but not as hard, summit finish of Lagos de Covadonga — after which just five stages remain, only one of them in the high mountains.
If anyone can take control of the race during the final week and suck out the suspense, then it’s Roglič. But his most imperious performances tend to come early on in Grand Tours, and he has typically looked more weak and vulnerable come the final week. While he may be the favourite, don’t expect him to have an easy time.
And what of the other riders still within a shot of the red jersey? Enric Mas (Movistar) has looked especially impressive in the mountains, as the only man to not only regularly match, but sometimes drop, Roglič. His 1:20 deficit to the Slovenian is a significant, but not insurmountable, especially given the severity of the two high mountain stages this final week.
A mere 21 seconds behind Mas is Richard Carapaz, a rider who might not have the form of Mas, but has ridden smartly to stay in contention, as has the pedigree of being a Grand Tour winner before. As a third week specialist, he’s close enough on GC to potentially snatch the red jersey should he come into his best form. And finally there’s Mikel Landa, whose Soudal–Quick-Step showed great confidence in by pacing for most of yesterday’s stage to Cuitu Negru, and, despite losing a little time on that climb, still remains just about in contention, 2:02 behind Roglič and 3:05 behind O’Connor.
Will any of Landa, O’Connor or Mas buck the recent trend and become first time Grand Tour winners? Could Carapaz become the latest multiple winner of Grand Tours? Or will Roglič re-assert his dominance and win yet again? Whatever happens, we can expect more twists and turns in this most unpredictable of Vueltas.
