Date: Saturday July 20, 2024
Distance: 133km
Start location: Nice
Finish location: Col de la Couillole
Start time: 13:35 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:18 CET
Today’s second successive day in the High Alps might be the shortest road stage of the Tour de France, but in a sense it might also be the hardest. Four mountains are crammed into just 133km, all but one of them ranked category one, including a final rise to Col de la Couillole which is the equal to any of the other mountain top finishes in the race. Parcours like this, with so few valley roads featured, make for intense, unabating racing, with virtually the whole day spent either ascending or descending.
Such intensity can be conducive to attacking racing, as the lack of attritional kilometres of flat or undulating roads in between the uphills and the downhills makes it easier to attack and ride in small groups, and so the stage is set for audacious moves from GC riders wanting to catapult up the ranking. Yet they will also be very aware that, unlike normal Tours, stage 20 will not be the final opportunity for GC racing, with another crucial stage to come tomorrow in place of the usual Champs-Élysées procession. A judgement will have to be made as to how much they can leave out on the road today, against how much to preserve for tomorrow’s climactic time trial in Nice.
The first climb of the day, Col de Braus, offers a chance for stage-hunting climbers to get into the break on its 10km of winding uphill roads, as well as teammates of the top GC riders hoping to assist their leaders later in the day — and, if things are chaotic enough, perhaps even the riders lower down in the GC top 10 can slip away. The next one, Col de Turini, is harder still, kicking up to 7% for its final 11km after a gentle start, and sparking GC action when used as a finishing climb at Paris-Nice, witnessing a Primož Roglič win in 2022, and eventual winner Egan Bernal first take the yellow jersey in 2019. With 73km still to ride after cresting, however, it'll likely play more of a wearing down process than ignite the GC race.
It could be a different story on the penultimate mountain, Col de la Colmiane, as by the time they’ve finished climbing the 7.5km road (and the 10km of gentler climbing that comes before its official start), there are only 37km left to ride the finish. The gradient of 7.1% was steep enough to see riders arrive in ones and twos when it was used as a finishing climb at the penultimate stage of Paris-Nice in 2018, when Simon Yates won the stage and took the yellow jersey, and so ambitious GC men needing time might try to go clear here, and see if they can maintain that advantage to the finish.
Alternatively, everybody could wait for the final mountain of the day, Col de la Couillole. It’s certainly hard enough in its own right to cause carnage, rising for a seemingly endless 15.7km and rarely ever dipping below 7%. It’s never before been as used as a Tour de France finish, but, as is the theme of the day, has featured at Paris-Nice, most recently last year when Tadej Pogačar won a stage GC riders strewn all across the road. Considering how much more climbing there is today than on those occasions, expect carnage.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
The second stage of back-to-back days in the Alps means there will be some tired legs in the peloton. However, with riders still not happy with their places on the GC and teams without a stage win, we don’t expect this will be a quiet stage with several pure climbers looking to get into the day’s break.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) has been an unstoppable attacking force over the past week, attacking where he can, getting into every break and securing a stage win on stage 17. He was climbing well on the brutal climbs in stage 19 and we expect more action from the Ecuadorian rider. Simon Yates (Jayco Alula) has also been an active rider in the mountains, more comfortable on this type of terrain. Jayco are yet to secure a stage win and it will be down to Yates on the penultimate stage to deliver a good result for the team.
Visma-Lease a Bike may opt to send Matteo Jorgenson up the road again in the hopes of clinching a stage win. He was close on stage 19, but was overtaken by the yellow jersey with just over one kilometre to go. Other riders who have performed well so far when faced with the uphill gradients are Cristián Rodríguez (Arkea-B&B Hotels), Romain Bardet (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL), and Alex Aranburu (Movistar).
However, with so many mountains again in this stage, it is likely we will see more fireworks from the GC rivals. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) will always fancy his chances, putting more time between him and the second-placed rider, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike). However, Vingegaard, it seems, has turned his concerns to Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) now, who is sitting within two minutes off Vingegaard and will be monitoring any attacks the young Belgian rider makes.
With this being the last road stage to make an impact on their position in the GC, all those in and around the top 10 will be fighting to defend their places or climb the ranks. Those riders include Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis).
Stage 20 winner prediction
He is the strongest rider in this race by far and has made winning Tour de France stages look easy, so it has got to be, once again, Tadej Pogačar for the stage win.
