Fans of heavyweight clashes in cycling rejoice, for the upcoming cobbled Classics promises plenty of showdowns between the sport’s very best. First, at the E3 Saxo Classic, eternal rivals Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel will face off for the first time since the Olympic road race last summer in Paris. Then the following week at the Tour of Flanders they’ll be joined by a certain Tadej Pogačar, setting the stage for a three-way contest that has taken place since the 2023 summertime World Championship road race in Glasgow. And finally, following Pogačar’s excitement-inducing announcement on Wednesday morning that he will indeed ride Paris-Roubaix, those same three will all race the Queen of the Classics together for the first time ever.
On that aforementioned day in Glasgow, they shared the three medals between them, with Van der Poel taking gold, Van Aert silver and Pogačar bronze, the rest of the field (aside from a battling Mads Pedersen) finishing more than two whole minutes adrift. They lived up to the hype as operating on another level than the other mere mortals racing, while also being thrillingly competitive against each other — though Van der Poel ended up winning big with a solo attack, the outcome was hardly considered a foregone conclusion, with each considered evenly-matched ahead of the race.
In the time that has since passed, the careers of Van der Poel and Pogačar have diverged substantially with that of Van Aert. Van der Poel and Pogačar have added three more Monuments to each of their palmarès (the former last year’s Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix and this year’s Milan-San Remo; the latter successive Il Lombardia titles and last year’s Liège–Bastogne–Liège), as well as both being crowned world champion; Van Aert, by contrast, has managed neither.
There had already been a discrepancy between their records in the Monuments, with Van Aert going into that Glasgow championships with just one on his palmarès compared with the others’ four. Yet the Belgian was still considered as being at the same level as the other two, the reasons for his deficit thought to be more a mixture of tactical mishaps and plain bad fortune than his ability and potential. Now, however, their records are starkly different, with Van der Poel and Pogačar up to joint-seventh on the all-time list with seven Monuments each, while Van Aert remains stuck on just the one. At Milan-Sanremo last weekend, when the other two were trading such devastating blows in an enthralling battle of the titans, it was easy to forget about Van Aert altogether. Whereas in Glasgow two seasons ago we were talking about a Big Three of the Classics, it now feels more appropriate to talk about a Big Two.
Or does it? Though Van Aert hasn’t been able to compete with the other two lately, that’s more to do with a lack of fitness than a lack of legs. 2024 was an injury-blighted year for him, a crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen preventing him from riding the two cobbled Monuments (won by Van der Poel at such a canter), and another at the Vuelta a España forcing him to miss out on the World Championships (won by Pogačar). On the one occasion he did get to race against Van der Poel, at the Paris Olympics, he successfully marked the Dutchman out of contention to allow his Belgian teammate Remco Evenepoel to win gold.
Fully fit again now, Van Aert’s form this year has still looked well short of Van der Poel and Pogačar’s so far; but need that be a reason for concern? The Belgian has made a conscious choice to gradually ease himself into the season, with the aim of arriving at his two major goals, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, in as strong a shape as possible. Though his uncharacteristically underwhelming displays at both Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne (where he failed to make the top 10 in either) and his winless appearances at Volta ao Algarve might suggest poor form, they could simply have reflected his desire not to peak too soon. And while Pogačar and Van der Poel were very visibly showcasing their form with stunning victories at Strade Bianche and Milan-Sanremo respectively, Van Aert hopes to be reaching a similar level via the more anonymous route of training, skipping both those races for an altitude camp. We’ll find out soon enough how well this approach has worked.
Another factor that could play into Van Aert’s favour when taking on Van der Poel and Pogačar in the upcoming cobbled Classics is the strength of his Visma-Lease a Bike team. Given the dominance of those two in the biggest Classics, it’s easy to forget just how prolific Visma have been these past two springs, where they’ve used their strength in numbers to work over other teams and win relentlessly. Last year they triumphed in both legs of Opening Weekend courtesy of Jan Tratnik and Van Aert, before Matteo Jorgenson went on to win Dwars door Vlaanderen; and in 2023 they won all those same races, in addition to E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem. Even if Van Aert might struggle individually to get the better of Van der Poel and Pogačar, the key to success might lie in his team.
And as devastating as the pair’s attacks were at Milan-Sanremo, it should not be forgotten that they were accompanied by a third interloper on the Via Roma finale in Flippo Ganna. The Italian rode both out of his skin and sensibly to stay in contention, not going into the red by immediately following the moves, but riding at his own pace before joining them on the finishing straight to take part in the sprint — and even beating Pogačar to claim second place. Van Aert can take encouragement knowing that, even if he’s not able to immediately follow their blistering attacks, he can still ride his way back, and depend on what is a much quicker finishing sprint than Ganna’s. He need only look back to the 2023 E3 Harelbeke (the last time he defeated both Van der Poel and Pogačar in the same race), where he conservatively covered moves while they attacked, before beating them in the three-up sprint, for a blueprint as to how to get the better of them both.
This is the more optimistic perspective of where Van Aert finds himself in the spring of 2025. On the other hand, it could be that he simply is no longer at the same level as his two big rivals. He turned 30 last September, and has yet to win a race since — could it be that his below-par form this year isn’t some long-term scheme to peak at the right time, but a sign that his peak years are behind him? And as for his Visma-Lease a Bike team, two of the riders who have been so key to their success in recent years, Dylan van Baarle and Christophe Laporte, have endured lingering form and fitness problems for a while now, leaving Jorgenson as the only man really capable of causing a headache to their rivals.
Whether Van Aert is building his form to a be comparable to Van der Poel and Pogačar’s, or not capable of challenging them for this spring at least, will likely be revealed this Friday at E3 Saxo Classic, where he’ll go up against Van der Poel (Pogačar has pulled out, in order to save himself for Paris-Roubaix). Not only is this Van Aert’s first race since Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne over three weeks ago, it’s also a race recent history suggests Ronde hopefuls already have to be in top shape for; of the nine occasions since 2015 that the E3 Harelbeke has preceded the Tour of Flanders the week before, on only one occasion has the winner of the latter not finished in the top four of the former.
Saturday’s Milan-San Remo showcased just how entertaining a spectacle it is to see two such historically brilliant riders doing battle at the peak of their powers; now imagine if a third rider of similar ability is thrown into the ring. This cobbled Classics campaign has the potential to be one of best in the sport’s history.
