Vuelta a España 2024 favourites: Who are the contenders for the red jersey?

Vuelta a España 2024 favourites: Who are the contenders for the red jersey?

The third and final Grand Tour of the year starts on Sautrday August 17, 2024, in Lisbon, Portugal

Words: India Paine

The 2024 Vuelta a España may be missing the one rider who has dominated the two other Grand Tours this year, but that doesn’t mean that this final three-week race of the year is not set to be exciting. If anything, this could be a more nail-biting battle for the general classification with no single stand-out favourite on the start line in Lisbon on Saturday August 17, 2024. 

Visma-Lease a Bike last year secured a clean sweep on the podium with Sepp Kuss taking the overall title. The American rider is back for the 79th edition, but this time, it does not look like the Dutch squad will have such a presiding presence with Kuss the only representative from Visma-Lease a Bike from the 2023 podium. Primož Roglič, third last year, will be in the race but this time against his former teammate. However, they won’t be the only riders eyeing the red jersey, with UAE Team Emirates on track for a Grand Tour triple and many other teams eager to finish their seasons on a high. 

So as we approach the start, we take a look at who could be in the red jersey in Madrid at the end of the arduous race around Spain.

Sepp Kuss, Visma-Lease a Bike

The 2023 winner of the Vuelta a España will be back this year, and it is confirmed that he will be Visma-Lease a Bike’s lead rider to defend his red jersey. Last year, Visma-Lease a Bike took a 1-2-3 on the podium in Madrid, however, Kuss, normally the most loyal of domestiques, took the top spot and GC superstars Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič were ordered to ride domestique duties instead – an unexpected turn of events, which led to a lot of media attention. Kuss this year, however, should expect a less dramatic Grand Tour with the team solely backing him with Vingegaard not riding and Roglič now on another team. The American will instead be supported by Wout van Aert, Robert Gesink, Steven Kruijswijk, Edoardo Affini, Attila Valter, Dylan van Baarle and Cian Uijtdebroeks. 

Sepp Kuss won the 2023 edition of La Vuelta (Image by ASO)

Kuss is an exceptional rider, especially when the terrain features long mountain climbs, which this year’s Vuelta certainly has plenty of – so on his best form, he’ll be a firm favourite to secure the red jersey for a second year running. He recently had Covid-19, however, which caused him to withdraw from the Tour de France, but seems to be back in good form, taking the GC at the Vuelta a Burgos earlier this month. He is yet to ride a Grand Tour this season, so his current form over a three-week race is unknown – starkly different to his racing calendar last year, which saw him race the Giro d’Italia, the Tour and then ride and win the Vuelta a España. The Visma-Lease a Bike team will have their faith in Kuss and will have their fingers crossed that Kuss can deliver them a Grand Tour win this season compared to their Grand Tour triple last year. 

Primož Roglič, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe 

Kuss may not need to worry about Primož Roglič not helping him win the jersey as a teammate, but he will need to worry in this year’s edition as he’ll be up against the Slovenian who is now with Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. Roglič will be even more determined to win this Grand Tour after crashing out of the Tour de France in July, which saw him with a fracture in his lower back. Roglič has not since raced and has instead focused on getting back to good form following his injuries and has been training for two-and-a-half weeks in an altitude camp ahead of the Vuelta. Before he withdrew from the Tour, he was sitting in fourth on the GC and was showing encouraging signs of potentially moving up into a podium position. Now, with disappointment over the Tour behind him, the Slovenian will be all in for winning his fourth Vuelta title, which would see him become the second-ever rider to achieve this feat. 

Primož Roglič during the 2024 Tour de France (Image by SWPix.com)

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe will also be taking Aleksandr Vlasov to the start in Lisbon, another one of their riders who had to withdraw from the Tour with an injury, as well as Dani Martínez, who came second at this year’s Giro d’Italia. All three riders will have the support of Roger Adrià, Giovanni Aleotti, Nico Denz, Patrick Gamper, and Florian Lipowitz. Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe have made it clear that their intentions are to ride aggressively for the GC, and Roglič will be hoping that he’ll be able to provide for them. Or with three GC contenders, will history repeat itself for Roglič, and he’ll be relegated to domestique duties at the Vuelta once again? 

Adam Yates and João Almeida, UAE Team Emirates 

UAE Team Emirates have had a spectacular year this year, with Tadej Pogačar winning the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in historic fashion. However, the Slovenian won’t be riding the Vuelta and therefore, the third and final Grand Tour of the year is being left to other riders in the team. Thankfully, UAE Team Emirates has plenty of GC riders to pick from and taking the Grand Tour sweep is not out of reach for the team. So with Pogačar missing as well as Juan Ayuso, the team line-up leads with João Almeida and Adam Yates, who will both be eyeing the GC. The team also includes Grand Tour debutant Isaac del Toro, as well as Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler, Jay Vine, Filippo Baroncini, and Pavel Sivakov. 

Adam Yates was an integral part of Tadej Pogačar Tour de France (Image by SWPix.com)

Both Yates and Almeida are extremely strong riders, placing fourth and sixth, respectively, on the general classification at the Tour de France this year. They also took a 1-2 at the Tour de Suisse just before the Tour, with Yates winning 22 seconds ahead of Almeida. Neither rider has raced since the Tour, and both have been preparing specifically for the upcoming Vuelta in the hopes of one of them taking the red jersey. Almeida placed ninth last year in the race around Spain, but this year’s edition will hold even more meaning to him as the race begins in his home country of Portugal in the capital city of Lisbon, therefore, he’ll be boosted by home crowds. 

Ben O’Connor, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale

This will be the last Grand Tour Ben O’Connor completes with his current Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale team as he’ll be moving to pastures new next season with Jayco Alula. He’ll, therefore, be wanting to finish on a high, especially after the team’s winning success has slowed in the second half of the season. O’Connor did not race the Tour as he had a baby daughter, but at the Giro d’Italia in May, he demonstrated his good form by placing fourth overall. And while fatherhood would have made his preparations for the race a bit different to normal, missing the Tour has enabled him to put in some extra training towards this final Grand Tour. He is also a consistently good rider and is often in the top five on the GC – this year alone, he placed second at the UAE Tour, fifth at Tirreno-Adriatico, and second at the Tour of the Alps. If he can bring this consistency to the Vuelta, we expect he’ll once again be within the top five. He will also be motivated by the fact that he has yet to win a stage at the Vuelta – he has both the Giro and Tour stage wins to his name, but the Spanish Grand Tour remains an elusive feat so far. 

Ben O'Connor placed fourth overall at this year's Giro d'Italia (Image by SWPix.com)

The team will also feature Felix Gall, who will be supporting O’Connor but will also be searching for his own opportunities for stage wins and to see where he finishes on the GC. He just missed out on a top-10 finish at the Tour de France in July, but with plenty of mountains on the menu at the Vuelta, we expect to see him regularly throughout the race. Pure climber and Giro d’Italia stage winner Valentin Paret-Peintre will also be on the team’s roster, as will Bruno Armirail, Geoffrey Bouchard, Vitor Lafay, Clément Berthet, and Sander de Pestel. 

Mikel Landa, Soudal–Quick-Step 

After doing a stellar job for his leader Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France, Mikel Landa looks to be heading to the Vuelta a España with a GC opportunity of his own. The Spanish rider finished fifth at the Tour himself behind the big three and João Almeida and looks to be heading to his home Grand Tour with the potential to rank high on the GC. Landa was signed to Soudal–Quick-Step last year from Bahrain-Victorious with the main aim of being super-domestique to Evenepoel for his Tour debut, and Landa did just that with Evenepoel securing a third-place podium finish. With his main job done and dusted, Landa will be able to head to the Vuelta with less pressure on his shoulders. 

Mikel Landa had an excellent Tour de France this year (Image by SWPix.com)

In his last race without Evenepoel at Volta a Catalunya in March, Landa placed second on the GC behind Tadej Pogačar, beating some of the names who will be on the start line in Lisbon, including Enric Mas (Movistar), Aleksandr Vlasov, Sepp Kuss and João Almeida. While the route is a lot tougher at the Vuelta, Landa is one of the best climbers in the peloton and could be in contention for becoming the first Spanish rider since Alberto Contador in 2014 to win the Vuelta a España. 

Carlos Rodríguez and Thymen Arensman, Ineos Grenadiers

The Ineos Grenadiers haven’t had the most standout of seasons this year in terms of Grand Tour success. While the team has a third-place podium at the Giro with Geraint Thomas and seventh overall at the Tour with Carlos Rodríguez, their season has lacked wins. The British team will be hoping to turn that around in this race with either of their co-leaders, Rogríguez and Thymen Arensmen or one of their riders on their roster who’ll be hunting stage wins. Both the GC riders have had different preparations ahead of this Vuelta, with Rodríguez riding the Tour last month and Arensmen’s last Grand Tour in May. In 2022, the two Ineos riders placed fifth (Arensman) and sixth (Rodríguez) on the GC, and then last year, Arensmen crashed out in the opening week of the race. It’ll be interesting to see how the GC for the British team pans out and whether full support will go to the Spaniard racing on his home roads or the Dutch rider. 

Carlos Rogríguez suffered illness during the Tour and will hope for a smoother Vuelta (Image by SWPix.com)

Nonetheless, they’ll also have the support from Grand Tour debut Josh Tarling, who will be hoping for a stage in the red jersey after the opening individual time trial, and Oscar Rodríguez. On the team roster is also mountain domestique Laurens De Plus, as well as Jhonatan Narváez, Brandon Rivera, and Kim Heiduk.  

Other contenders 

Enric Mas will be the Spanish team Movistar's GC leader, and he’ll face a certain amount of pressure to perform well here after a lacklustre season so far. He placed 19th overall at the Tour, and his best finish this season so far was in March in Catalunya. Mas has, however, come second on three occasions at the Vuelta, and it is in the high mountains that he performs at his best. He’ll be supported by Nairo Quintana, Pelayo Sánchez, Einer Rubio, Oier Lazkano, Carlos Canal, Jorge Arcas and Nelson Oliveira, some of whom will get their own opportunities to provide a much-need win for the Spanish squad. 

Another rider to watch out for will be Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost). While he did get a stint in the yellow jersey at the Tour before falling out of contention, Carapaz did take a stage win and was one of the most active riders over the course of the final week, securing himself the polka dot jersey. If he performs as well as he did in the mountains at the Tour at the Vuelta, then we may see him challenge for a spot on the GC. 

Bahrain-Victorious will be backing Antonio Tiberi, who placed fifth at the Giro earlier in the year and won the youth classification. This will be his third Vuelta despite only being 23 and will hope to clinch a podium spot after the team missed out at the Tour. Tiberi took a break from racing after the Giro, and his last race was the Vuelta a Burgos last month, where he placed 32nd overall. 

Lidl-Trek are taking a strong team of climbers to this Vuelta with Mattias Skjelmose as the leader. This race has been the main aim for the 23-year-old rider, who has excelled this year in week-long races, including fourth at Paris-Nice, third at Itzulia Basque Country, and third at the Tour de Suisse. This will be Skjelmose’s first time acting as leader in a three-week race for the team, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs overall in such a tough course. However, he’ll be supported by co-leader and Grand Tour winner Tao Geoghegan Hart, who is just coming back from illness and injury, as well as having climber Giulio Ciccone to help him in the high mountains. Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) and Max Poole (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL) will also be two riders to watch out for over the three-week race. 

*Cover image by Getty Images

Words: India Paine


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