Date: Saturday August 17, 2024
Distance: 12km, individual time trial
Start location: Lisbon
Finish location: Oeiras
Start time: 16:23 CET
Finish time (approx): 19:30 CET
When Vasco da Gama set sail from Lisbon for India on July 8 1497, arduously circumventing the entire continent of Africa to avoid the hostile direct route via the Mediterranean, he helped usher in a Portuguese golden age. The success of that unprecedented voyage opened up new trade routes with the Indian Ocean and, ultimately, a colonial empire – bringing in newfound riches that made Portugal one of the wealthiest places in the world, with Lisbon as its capital. Little remains architecturally of this era in Lisbon after most of the city was destroyed in 1755 by a devastating earthquake, but an ambitious rebuilding programme from Prime Minister Marquis of Pombal transformed it into the city of post-enlightenment architecture and wide boulevards that we see today.
Just as explorers like Vasco da Gama widened the horizons of Europe during the Age of Discovery, Lisbon’s hosting of the Gran Partida of this year’s Vuelta a España is a consequence of the ongoing process of globalisation in cycling. Back in 1997, it became the first city outside of Spain to host the start of the race; since then, there have been three more foreign starts, and with increasing regularity.
Whereas the recent trend has been for the Vuelta to open with a team time trial, it seems the race has followed the other Grand Tours in falling out of love with that format. Instead, each rider will begin the race in isolation, one by one setting off from Lisbon to take on an individual time trial course. Primož Roglič was triumphant the last time the Vuelta began this way in 2021 in Burgos, putting between 14 to 40 seconds into all of his major GC rivals and, perhaps more importantly, intimidating them with a show of strength at the beginning of an edition that he would go on to win. Today’s stage is considerably longer — in fact, at 12km, it’s the longest opening individual time trial of any Vuelta since 2001. No mere warm-up, this compromises a third of the total time trialling kilometres of the whole race, and, therefore, it’s essential that the GC contenders who rely upon their superiority against the clock maximise their gains.
The parcours ought to help them. It runs along entirely flat coastal roads to the finish at Oeiras, one of the many well-to-do spots in Greater Lisbon. That the organisers have chosen a time trial to be virtually the only stage of the whole race not to include a hill might infuriate the sprinters, who will have to battle against gravity for a chance to win in the road stages later this week. But the immediate losers of this design are the lighter climbers among the GC contenders, who don’t have the physiology to lay down the same kind of power the specialists can against the clock. For them, this is a day to mitigate losses.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
With the opening of this year's racing taking place in Lisbon, two riders in the peloton will want to put on a show in front of home crowds – João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) and Nelson Oliveira (Movistar), both of whom are strong in the race of truth. Almeida has consistently produced good results in the individual time trial, even on courses with little elevation. In the three individual time trials he has raced this year, he's been in the top 10 and even won the mountain time trial at the Tour de Suisse. Almeida is one of UAE's top general classification riders, so he'll also be hoping to get a good start in the overall. Oliveira, on the other hand, hasn't had quite as consistent results as his fellow Portuguese, but he can produce respectable results on his day. Oliveira recently placed seventh in Paris at the Olympic individual time trial, so boosted by home crowds, we may see him finish in the top 10 of this opening stage.
Beyond the home favourites, one rider heading into this stage with his eyes on wearing the red jersey for one stage is Josh Tarling (Ineos Grenadiers). He's potentially the strong time triallist of this race – current European and British champion in the individual time trial and placed fourth at the Olympic Games. Tarling won the race against the clock at O Gran Camiño earlier this season and will want to add a Vuelta stage to his glittering palmarès on his debut appearance.
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is another formidable time triallist and won the last individual time trial opening stage at the Vuelta, something he will have fond memories of having then gone on to win the overall title. The Slovenian will wish for the same fate three years later, but his current condition carries a question mark given his crash-out of the Tour de France in July.
UAE Team Emirates also boast Brandon McNulty. He came fifth at the Olympic Games earlier this month and is the current US individual time trial national champion. McNulty is strongest over a flat course, which we saw at the UAE Tour earlier this year, where he celebrated victory at the end of the 12km flat course along the coast – almost identical to this opening stage's parcours.
Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) is a powerhouse of a rider who could pose a challenge for the opening stage. Third in the Olympic Games time trial, he has regularly demonstrated his exceptional abilities against the clock. Other riders who could produce a good outcome in Lisbon will be Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Victor Campenaerts (Lotto Dstny), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious), and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AGR2 La Mondiale).
Stage one winner prediction
We think Josh Tarling will take the opening stage in Lisbon. The 20-year-old will be super strong over this parcours and will want to win a stage on his Grand Tour debut.
