Date: Wednesday July 17, 2024
Distance: 178km
Start location: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux
Finish location: SuperDévoluy
Start time: 12:35 CET
Finish time (approx): 16:58 CET
The climb to SuperDévoluy that rounds off stage 17 has never before featured at a Tour de France, but it will be familiar to those who have followed the Critérium du Dauphiné. In 2013, Samuel Sanchez outgunned his breakaway partner Jakob Fuglsang in a two-up sprint to claim stage victory, while three years later Steve Cummings soloed all the way to the top having already gone clear alone to take a massive win by almost four minutes.
Cummings now works as a directeur sportif for Ineos Grenadiers, and his tactical expertise that made him such a wily breakaway specialist could be put to great use when trying to plot how to win today’s stage. He won that day from getting into, and later going clear from, a large breakaway group about 20 riders in size that formed at the start of the stage, and we can expect today’s winner to come in a similar manner. This isn’t a high mountain stage in which only the very best climbers will be in contention for, but nor are the climbs simple enough for it to be called a mere hilly stage; rather, it is best classed as a medium mountain stage, and so whoever wants to win will need to have strong climbing legs.
Getting into the break won’t be easy for pure climbers, however, as the opening kilometres of the stage are flat. The riders set off from Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux in the Drôme department, where foodies should make sure to sample the local black truffle specialty (even the wine here has aromas of truffles, what with the vines being planted on the same land as the truffle oak). From here the route rises gently and almost imperceptibly, but won’t reach an official climb until 140km into the stage, after passing through Gap, and so this is a great chance for climbing all-rounders (in the manner of Cummings) to get up the road and contest the stage ahead of superior climbers.
Gap is known as the gateway to the Alps, yet the mountains its visit precedes today aren’t quite of the long, high altitude type we associate with the mountain range, and that will feature in the days to come. First up is the Col Bayard, which has only been ranked a category two effort with its gradients of 7.3% over a modest 6.8km. The Col du Noyer that follows is certainly tougher, with steeper slopes of 8.1% over a slightly longer 7.5km, but the final rise to SuperDévoluy only climbs at 5.9% for just 3.8km.
Are these climbs hard enough to ignite some GC action? If significant moves are to be made, the Col du Noyer is the place to make them, and it was here that Sánchez struck out for stage glory in 2013, and where Alberto Contador attacked Chris Froome in 2016. Team Sky shut down that Contador attempted to comfortably seal Froome overall victory, and if another team can control and neutralise the race a similar way, then the only time gaps we’ll likely see are a few seconds following the final sprint up to the SuperDévoluy finish.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
With all the climbs back loaded into the final 40km of this stage, it is highly likely that the breakaway will be the ones battling it out for stage victory at the end of the day. And there has been one team who've been extremely active so far throughout the past two weeks of racing, and that is EF Education-EasyPost. On most stages, a rider dressed in pink has infiltrated the break, and even if they have been caught by the teams of the big three (Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel), they’ve fought until the very end – most notably, Ben Healy, who has proven his strength in the mountains. He’ll be a real contender for the stage win as the climbs are less demanding than those in the Pyrenees, but are still hard enough for him to make his signature attacks. His teammate Richard Carapaz could also be a strong contender, as could Neilson Powless, both being strong and punchy climbers.
Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) has been consistently strong so far, even sporting the polka-dot jersey for much of the first week. He’s powerful on this type of terrain and will be a rider determined to get in the break and keep it away. Uno-X Mobility also have Magnus Cort in their team of riders and may choose to send him up the road too.
Winner of this year’s Flèche Wallonne, Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech), hasn’t performed as well as expected so far. His best place in the race has been 50th, but he boasts a riding style that suits this kind of terrain, so will be a rider to watch. Nico Denz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) can pack a punch on some steep ascents, and now without a GC to look after, stage wins will be high on the team's agenda.
Laurens De Plus or Michał Kwiatkowski could be potential riders for Ineos Grenadiers, however, both might be on domestique duties for their GC, Carlos Rogríguez, especially as it cannot be assumed that a GC battle won’t be ignited on the punchy climbs that finish this stage. Frank van den Broek (Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL) could be another rider to watch, he came second place on the opening stage in Rimini, working for Romain Bardet, who came first. The team haven’t had a stage win since stage one and will be keen to make the most of a rider like Van den Broek or Bardet on this type of terrain.
Other riders who could secure the win atop SuperDévloy are Simon Yates (Jayco Alula), Davide Formolo or Enric Mas (both Movistar), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), or Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ).
Stage 17 winner prediction
We think Ben Healy will finally make it to the finish line first after many valiant attempts.
