Milan-Sanremo is a tricky one, especially to win but also to predict. The longest WorldTour race of the year is predictable for around 280km but then what follows is some of the most frenetic racing of the entire season; the Poggio – both climbing its 3.6km at 3.7% and descending its twisting hairpins – is a highlight of the professional calendar. Known as one of the hardest races to win, the first Monument of the year plays out like a crescendo, culminating on the slopes of the Poggio and the final run to the finish on the Via Roma.
The race can be – and has been – won by puncheurs like Mathieu van der Poel, sprinters like Mark Cavendish, and even GC riders, like Vincenzo Nibali, but there is also scope for a surprise winner like Jasper Stuyven. To win, a rider must have the endurance to race for almost 300km, the punch to survive the Poggio near the front, the skill to navigate the descent, the sprint to kick on the Via Roma, and the guile to outsmart their opponents.
Here are those riders who could be in contention for victory at the 2025 Milan-Sanremo.
Tadej Pogačar
As ever, Tadej Pogačar, starts as a favourite for a WorldTour race this Saturday when he lines up in Pavia. The road world champion has never won on the Via Roma, but his battling victory at Strade Bianche earlier in the month, where he fought back from a crash and still dominated the field, shows he is, again, in the kind of shape that could win Milan-Sanremo. Not that his shape has ever been the issue at previous editions of the race, but rather things haven’t quite clicked for the Slovenian. Pogačar is a canny racer, showing in the past that he learns from mistakes; at the 2022 Tour of Flanders he was outsprinted by Mathieu van der Poel, but the following year he didn’t leave it late and stormed to victory after a 17km solo attack. In 2025, he once again starts Milan-Sanremo with all the tools to win the race, namely, a strong climbing punch, daredevil descending and a punishing finishing sprint. But he will have to drop the best sprinters in order to claim his eighth career Monument.
Photo by Zac Williams/SWpix.com
Mathieu van der Poel
The 2023 winner, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), will be one of the men Pogačar will not want to arrive in the final kilometre with as the Dutchman has proven himself to be the best Classics rider of this generation, thanks in part to his devastating kick. The two protagonists have locked horns at Milan-Sanremo in the past and will do so again this weekend. For Van der Poel to win the race, he needs the reversal of Pogačar’s tactics - he will need to hold onto Pogačarup the Poggio to give himself an opportunity for a sprint on the Via Roma. Simply, if van der Poel and the rest of the contenders cannot hold onto Pogačar’s wheel on the Poggio, they will see their chances of victory disappear up the road.
Photo by Simon Wilkinson/SWpix.com
Filippo Ganna
Ineos Grenadiers’ Italian powerhouse, Filippo Ganna is fresh off a remarkable second-place overall at Tirreno-Adriatico where he demonstrated his current climbing ability, which is possibly at a career-best. Ganna has finished on the podium at Milan-Sanremo before, when he came second in 2023. He did this by attacking on the flat when the group was hesitating about chasing after a flying Van der Poel who was up the road. Ganna, who will not be the strongest climber or sprinter, will have to race smartly and perform a similar move this year to win. He can also take advantage of the support provided by a strong Ineos Grenadiers team, who will be confident coming off the back of some impressive performances at Paris-Nice and Tirreno, where aggressive tactics yielded results.
Photo by Tim de Waele/Getty Images
Jasper Philipsen
Defending champion, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is back to regain his title, not only as La Classicissima champion but also as the top sprinter in the world, which, in the eyes of many spectators is a title currently held by Tim Merlier (Soudal–Quick-Step) and Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek). Philipsen has by no means gone off the boil, having claimed three Tour de France stages last year along with a host of other victories, but with the rise of Merlier and Milan, the defending champion’s air of invincibility has waned. Can he regain it on Saturday? What may hamper his chances was a last-kilometre crash at Nokere Koerse on Wednesday.
Photo by Zac Williams/SWpix.com
Jonathan Milan
Philipsen’s rival Milan will be on the Milan-Sanremo startline on Saturday and he is being backed by one of the strongest teams in the peloton in Lidl-Trek, who boast a squad including former winner Jasper Stuyven, Giulio Ciccone, Alex Kirsch, Quinn Simmons and Mads Pedersen. After already claiming six sprint wins so far in 2025, most recently at Tirreno-Adriatrico, Milan will be eyeing up a home victory and claiming the first Monument of his career. To do so, he will need to hold firm on the Poggio and hope the group comes back together so he can unleash his devastating sprint.
Photo by Zac Williams/SWpix.com
Mads Pedersen
Milan’s Lidl-Trek teammate, Mads Pedersen, was on stellar form at Paris-Nice last week, taking a stage win and being his usual attacking self in others. Often overshadowed by the likes of Van der Poel and Wout van Aert, Pedersen has amassed an impressive palmarès, including a Road World Championships, Tour stages and Classics like Gent-Wevelgem and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. But he will want his trophy cabinet to be bolstered by a Monument and 2025 represents one of his best chances given his rising form.
Photo by Zac Williams/SWpix.com
Other contenders
The nature of the race, and the star quality of its startlist, means that a contenders list can never be boiled down to a handful of riders. Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) has been in impressive form of late and will be buoyed by his climbing and sprinting at Tirreno. Last year’s second-place finisher and perennial Sanremo top ten man Michael Matthews (Team Jayco Alula) wants to right the wrongs after coming so close to victory in 2024.
Versatile sprinters Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), the latter of whom could step up if Van der Poel and Philipsen struggle, will hope to survive the Poggio. If they can, they will be in with a chance of competing with the best fast-men for a coveted victory.
Previous winners Matej Mohorič (Bahrain-Victorious) and Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) will need to get away on either the climb up the Poggio or on the descent off of it, as Mohorič did in 2022.
Photo by Tim de Waele/Getty Images
Should Pogačar face any difficulties, the UAE Team Emirates-XRG trio of Jhonatan Narváez (who beat his leader to Giro d’Italia stage one victory when riding for Ineos last year), Classics man, Tim Wellens and Isaac del Toro, who won Milano-Torino on Wednesday, are all capable of stepping in and contending for a podium spot.
Visma-Lease a Bike’s Ben Tulett was second to Del Toro at Milano-Torino and could be allowed up the road. However, the team, who are without 2020 winner Wout van Aert, will most likely be hoping that sprinter Olav Kooij can survive the Poggio and unleash a kick for victory on the Via Roma.
Other outsiders include Groupama-FDJ’s Romain Grégoire and Stefan Küng, who will go under the radar and be allowed away on the Poggio. As will Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), who has a good kick on him but won’t want to be in a bunch sprint with the likes of Milan, Philipsen or Kooij.
