Jonas Vingegaard may need to have a rethink if he is to successfully defend his Tour de France title. Just three days ago, it appeared he was on the ascendency when he managed to close down a long-range attack from Tadej Pogačar during the stage in the Massif Central, then further broke his morale by defeating him in the two-up sprint at the line. The Dane might still have trailed his rival by 1:14 on the GC rankings, but the momentum was with him, and with the high mountains and summit finishes of the Pyrenees and Alps still to come, the terrain from here on in looked better suited to him.
But today, during what was the first of the stages that were supposed to be where he’d start to gain ground on the yellow jersey, Vingegaard conversely ended up losing more time. He wasn’t able to follow when Pogačar launched an attack 4.5km from the summit finish atop Pla d’Adet, and, unlike on previous occasions this year when he had initially been dropped, managed neither to claw the gap back nor even keep it pegged. By the finish, he had lost 43 seconds, leaving him with a deficit of 1:57 on the GC.
While this is far from too big a lead to declare the race for the yellow jersey over, it may require Vingegaard to think up more imaginative tactics. Presumably, his plan before today will have been to take on Pogačar mano a mano on the four summit finishes left in the race, where, if past performances between the two are an indication, he will have the beating of him.
That might still be the case. The Plateau de Beille that lies in store at the end of tomorrow’s stage 15 is a harder, longer effort than today’s Pla d’Adet, and, therefore, the kind that Vingegaard would normally prefer. Plus, when we reach the Alps next week, there will be the added difficulty of high altitude, which Pogačar has been known to struggle with in the past. On stage 19’s Cime de la Bonette, over 2,800m in the sky, even the 1:57 he has over him for now could disappear quickly.
Jonas Vingegaard chasing Tadej Pogačar in the final kilometre of stage 14 (Image by James Startt)
But this strategy will require Pogačar to crack, which so far at this Tour has not appeared forthcoming. Despite having the Giro d’Italia in his legs, he has looked comfortable throughout, and at no point has he been put under any real pressure; his only disappointments so far have not been losing time or being dropped by others, but his own attacks not quite succeeded in dropping everyone.
Making it even harder for Vingegaard is the strength of Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates support. With so many elite climbers at their disposal, they have the strength to shut the race down on a mountain stage by riding a high tempo throughout. And with their lead now just shy of two minutes, they might do exactly that and go into defence mode. They showed today how they have the strength to bring back a big, strong break without help from any other teams, with Nils Politt alone doing enough on the run-in to the ascent and descent of the Tourmalet to all but seal the break’s fate. Having barely even used João Almeida on the final climb, you sense they can still go up another level, too.
The difference in strength between his Visma-Lease a Bike team and UAE Team Emirates poses another problem for Vingegaard. In past Tours de France, he could rely on Sepp Kuss, Primož Roglič and an in-form Wout van Aert, and in the last two Tours, they have compounded on multiple occasions to work over Pogačar, Kuss setting a devastating tempo on the climbs whenever Vingegaard wanted it, Roglič acting as a GC danger and carrot for Pogačar to have to chase, and Van Aert providing support on all terrain.
Matteo Jorgenson descending the Tourmalet (Image by Zac Williams/SWPix.com)
Visma-Lease a Bike still has Matteo Jorgenson up there on GC in tenth place at 10:03, who could still be made use of. Today, he worked in a defensive role, taking over the pace-setting in the peloton when UAE Team Emirates attacked with Adam Yates. In the upcoming stages, it might be worth him doing the same kind of ploy as Yates and forcing UAE Team Emirates to chase him.
As a rider who also excels in the cobbled classics, Jorgenson is almost unique among the other GC riders and is one of many top rouleurs in the team’s line-up who could excel in certain terrains. If Visma-Lease a Bike are really feeling bold, they might even target tomorrow’s stage to do something drastic. It’s a much longer stage than today’s, with much bigger distances between the climbs, including a stretch of over 60km between the third and fourth mountains. UAE Team Emirates might be stronger in the climbs, but Visma-Lease a Bike has the advantage in terrain like this. Could it be possible for them to use their line-up of elite rouleurs to try to unsettle Pogačar here?
While that would be an outlandish ploy, a more realistic one could be to forge some kind of agreement with Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step). Evenepoel and Pogačar wanted to work together with Vingegaard earlier in the race, when the three went clear on the gravel while GC rival Roglič floundered, only for Vingegaard to decline.
Now, however, he and Evenepoel have a common enemy in Pogačar, and if they’re ambitious enough to target the yellow jersey rather than jostle each other for second and third place, they could find it mutually beneficial to work together. Evenepoel’s Soudal–Quick-Step team is performing well and also has a GC threat in their ranks in Mikel Landa, who has ridden a great Tour so far to place sixth at 7:17. It’s plausible to see him and Visma-Lease a Bike’s Jorgenson attacking and working together to put UAE Team Emirates under pressure.
Such allegiances are rare, but then it’s also rare to see two riders so tunnel-focused on winning. As a two-time defending champion, Vingegaard has no interest in anything other than overall victory, while throughout his career, Evenepoel has shown a willingness to take risks to chase the bigger prize. And with substantial gaps of 4:04 and 3:39, respectively, between each rider and the man fourth on GC (João Almeida), there isn’t so much risk of them losing their places on the podium anyway.
Such ideas are unorthodox, but Vingegaard might need to start thinking outside the box if he is to win this Tour de France. Based on today’s stage and the different make-up of his team, he’s not going to triumph at this Tour de France doing the same as he did to win the previous two.
*Cover image by ASO
