Date: Sunday, September 8, 2024
Distance: 24.6km
Start location: Distrito Telefónica, Madrid
Finish location: Madrid
Start time: 16:20 CEST
Finish time (approx): 19:30 CEST
Once again, the Vuelta will come to an end with an evening stage in Madrid. The dimmed light of the evening sun always gives this stage an end of term feel, as does the nocturnal podium ceremony that follows it; and given that we’re in Madrid, where the locals eat late and party even later, deep into the early hours, the night is still young by the time it’s done. The Spanish capital is famous for its nightlife, although the organisers have chosen to pay homage to the somewhat drier aspect of Madrid life with a start at the headquarters of Telefónica, marking the centenary of the telecommunications brand, the parent company of the long-standing sponsors of Movistar Team.
Last year, the final stage here had enough excitement to rival a night out in Madrid. Normally this finale is, much like the annual Parisian circuit that closes off the Tour de France each year, a guaranteed sprint finish, but that didn’t stop Remco Evenepoel, Filippo Ganna and four others from trying to deviate from the script by attacking early on the circuit. Together they worked to hold off the charging peloton in a thrilling chase that went right down to the wire, with the escape group just about holding them off, with Kaden Groves triumphing just ahead of Ganna in the sprint between them.
Despite all the thrills of that stage, the organisers have deviated from the formula this year and planned a individual time trial in Madrid rather than the usual circuit stage. This will be only the third time in the last 20 years that the Vuelta has finished with a time trial, and both those most recent occasions were at Santiago de Compostela rather than Madrid — in 2021, when Primož Roglič won the stage to seal overall victory, and 2014, on the occasion of Adriano Malori’s biggest career win, while Alberto Contador comfortably held off Chris Froome to seal the GC.
There was a time trial of almost the exact same length (25.8km as opposed to 24.6km) and terrain (completely flat) during last year’s Vuelta. Ganna took the spoils that day, and Remco Evenepoel came out on top of the GC favourites, without landing too big a blow, with each of Roglič, João Almeida, Aleksandr Vlasov and Juan Ayuso losing less than a minute, and Enric Mas and Mikel Landa the serious contenders to lose more than 1:30. That might provide some clue as to the kind of time gaps GC contenders might believe are possible to overturn today, but this being the final stage of the Grand Tour, and that coming during the second week, should also be taken into account. There will surely be some struggling to recover from yesterday’s mammoth effort, and consequently will lose more time today than they usually would. There could yet be surprises in store on this final hurdle of the race.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
As the second time trial in this Vuelta, it's easy to look at stage one's opening run against the clock and assume we'll see the same names fighting it out for victory. But while the profile of the respective routes are similarly flat, stage 21 is more than double the length of stage one and the riders now have three weeks of racing in their legs, adding an element of unpredictability.
Still, winner of the opening day Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) remains in the race despite a nasty crash earlier this week, and will hope to add a second victory at the race's conclusion. His team-mate Jay Vine may enjoy the longer time trial a bit more, but remains an outsider for a victory here.
No doubt the likes of Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Edoardo Affini (Visma-Lease a Bike) have been eyeing this time trial as the hauled themselves through the relentless mountain stages, and both have a good shot on a power course like this.
Two other riders from the top-10 that first day, Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Mauro Schmid (Jayco Alula) and Bruno Amirail (Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale), should not be counted out either. Outside of that, Soudal–Quick-Step pair Kasper Asgreen and Matteo Cattaneo will hope to perform more in line with their usual expectations against the clock on this occasion, while Nelson Oliveira has an outside chance of making sure Movistar don't leave their home race without a stage win.
Of course, eyes will also be on the GC contenders. Former Olympic champion Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) leads the race with a healthy margin and is realistically the only GC contender to be considered a favourite for the stage win. He has all but sewn up the red jersey though, and the focus of the other contenders will be on maintaining their current spots.
Third place Enric Mas (Movistar) will be hoping to repeat his efforts from stage one when he beat both Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Ben O'Connor (Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale), and make up the nine seconds to O'Connor ahead of him second place and hold off Carapaz who is currently 49 seconds behind him in fourth.
Stage 21 winners prediction
We think Stefan Küng will win the final time trial of the Vuelta.
