Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
Distance: 172km
Start location: Villarcayo
Finish location: Picón Blanco
Start time: 13:00 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:17 CEST
For the riders who have spent much of this mountain-heavy edition of the Vuelta a España struggling in the grupetto, more concerned with merely surviving and making the time cut each day than chasing any individual glory, today brings both good news and bad. The good news is that this will be the last mountain stage of the race before tomorrow’s entirely flat time trial in Madrid. The bad news, however, is that there are multiple days' worth of climbing to be tackled in this one stage, with no less than seven mountains and nearly 5,000m elevation gain to overcome.
In fact, this stage is arguably the hardest of the whole Vuelta. The organisers have gone out of their way to make the parcours as punishing as possible, taking a circuitous route through the Burgos part of the Cantabrian Mountains to squeeze in as much climbing as possible. The potential for carnage is high, and even time gaps on GC that seem safe could be surmounted.
Things don’t start so hard initially, with an opening third more in keeping with the hilly stages that have preceded today. The climbing begins with a shallow 3% rise to the summit of the category three summit Las Estacas de Trueba, after which they plummet downhill for 15km before taking on two climbs, the Puerto de La Braguía and Alto del Caracol, in quick succession, neither of which average more than 6%. From that point on, though, things begin to get harder. The Portillo de Lunada that follows it has been deemed hard enough to be rated category one, lasting a lengthy 14km and rising at a not inconsiderable 6.1%. This is followed by the similarly steep, albeit half as long, Portillo de la Sia. The only real respite comes next in the form of a 20km descent, but that’s to take them to the foot of another category one, Puerto de los Tornos (11.3km at 6%).
All that will be enough to leave the riders exhausted by the time they at last arrive at the day’s showpiece, Picón Blanco. By this point, the race could already be in bits before they even reach the climb, especially if any GC riders or teams take it upon themselves to ignite the race early. That said, committing before a finishing climb as hard as this is risky, as riders will still need to have plenty in the tank not to run out of gas on what is, with an average of 9.1%, by far the steepest of the day’s climbs, and so, the smart move might be to wait until it to make your move.
The Vuelta has finished atop Picón Blanco once before, in 2021, but that stage bears little in common with this one; it was the only climb tackled all day, came during the opening week, and was affected by a headwind. Then, eight top GC riders all finished at the top together — today, we can anticipate seeing the favourites strewn all across the road on it, roughly in the order of their final GC placings.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
That's it, the final mountain stage is here – the final opportunity to make a difference in the general classification on the climbs. This also means the last chance to secure the polka dot jersey, and the battle for the jersey is between teammates. Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates) currently leads this classification, however, his teammate, Jay Vine, is only one point behind. And there are plenty of points up for grabs with seven categorised climbs featured throughout this stage, so it'll be interesting to see which one of those riders gets into the day's break to win those precious points and, ultimately, take the jersey. However, sitting third in the KOM classification is Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), and we've learned that we shouldn't count this rider out when it comes to dominating stages.
There is also a tight contest for the youth classification. Matthias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) currently leads in the white jersey and sits sixth on the GC, leapfrogging Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers) on stage 19. The Ineos rider sits only eight seconds behind Skjelmose, but the Lidl-Trek rider looked extremely strong on the summit finish of stage 19. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) sits third in the youth classification, 1:08 seconds behind Skjelmose. Lipowitz has been climbing extremely well in this race, but he may be needed to help his team's GC on such a vital stage unless he is given free rein to try and move up on both the youth and general classifications.
But with it all now to play for in a last attempt to change their overall places before the time trial in Madrid, the general classification riders will be trying to bank some time before the final stage if they are not strong in the race of the truth or they'll be trying to defend their place on the podium. Current leader Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) demonstrated his capabilities during stage 19, attacking with two of his teammates to drop all his GC rivals and take the red jersey. He was aggressive, calculated and controlled, taking a comfortable lead before the race's hardest stage in the quest for his fourth Vuelta a España title.
The only two riders who responded were David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost). Carapaz sits just outside the podium, 2:54 behind Roglič and 34 seconds behind Enric Mas (Movistar), who sits in third place, so the EF rider will try everything he has got to try and get onto that final podium. Mas, however, has looked extremely strong on the climbs throughout this race. He could potentially extend his lead over Carapaz or even move up into second place, knocking previous red jersey wearer Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) from that spot, on 26 seconds behind. Other riders to watch out for on a stage like this will be Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike), Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) and Eddie Dunbar (Jayco Alula).
Stage 20 winners prediction
We think Primož Roglič will celebrate a stage victory in the red jersey.
