The route announcement for the 2024 men’s Tour de France came without a major spanner in the works, no unconventional twist to make it stand out. There’s no sign of any road surfaces other than tarmac, the gravel and cobblestone experiments of past years unrepeated; no return of a team time trial, or any other kind of unconventional stage; and no other deviation from the finale in Paris as per last year.
Rather, this looks every bit the typical Tour de France. It’s been nearly divided into seven flat stages, six hilly and six in the mountains, plus a couple of individual time trials to round it off. The edition won’t even have the novelty of any foreign visits, with all 21 stages held exclusively on French roads.
As such, there’s no reason not to expect that, notwithstanding the many variables regarding form, fitness and injury that can occur over the next eight months, the duopoly that has dominated the Tour de France since 2021 won’t continue. Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard last year broke a record by making it four consecutive Tours de France in which they have occupied the top spots on GC, making their rivalry the most sustained at this level in the race’s history.
And not only that, no rider has even threatened to get near them. Remco Evenepoel last year came the closest, finishing third overall, but he was a distant 3:01 behind Vingegaard and 9:18 away from Pogačar. Still only 24, it’s anticipated that he hasn’t yet scaled the ceiling of what is capable of, and indeed in terms of time trialling, he can already more than match the big two, defeating them both in the week one stage against the clock at Gevrey-Chambertin last year. But Tuesday’s route announcement confirms that there will be just 44km of time trial spread across two stages, one of which is up a mountain. For Evenepoel to bridge the gap and challenge for yellow next year, he’ll need to yet further — and substantially — improve his climbing.
This is a mountainous Tour de France weighted towards the pure climbers, meaning the best climber will likely be crowned champion. That is indeed normally the case at the Tour, but there is so much climbing scheduled for 2025 that riders have more leeway for mishaps in other stages, knowing there’s plenty of uphill road for them to make up any time lost elsewhere (like, say, in the crosswinds should the wind blow during some of the exposed northern stages). In total, there will be 51,550m elevation gain, a significant proportion of that coming in the form of mountain-top finishes, of which there will be five.
Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel battled it out for victory throughout the 2024 Tour, but Pogačar was unbeatable
In 2024, the best climber was, of course, Tadej Pogačar, who gained most of the 6:17 by which he ultimately won the yellow jersey in the four mountain top finishes he won. As he did throughout the season, he rode the Tour with an air of invincibility surrounding him, demoralising even his more quality rivals to the point where they had all thrown in the towel and accepted there was no weakness in him to exploit, and nothing they could do to stop him.
With this in mind, the choice of mountains selected by the organisers is intriguing. It’s almost as if they want to remind everyone, after last year’s romp to overall victory, that the Slovenian is fallible by featuring mountains that he has faltered on in the past. In fact, the route will invite specific memories of perhaps the most vulnerable moments endured by Pogačar from each of the three Tours preceding last year’s.
In 2021, an otherwise dominant overall victory from Pogačar was interrupted by one mishap during the second week, when he was surprisingly dropped by Vingegaard on Mont Ventoux. That famous mountain will feature again this year on stage 16. In 2022, it was clear he’d lost his Tour title to that same rival on Hautacam at the end of stage 18, when the searing pace set by the Dane’s teammate Wout van Aert in the green jersey was enough to distance him, and concede another fatal minute. Hautacam will be this year’s first mountain top finish, on stage 12. And the most humbling moment of Pogačar’s career so far occurred during stage 17 of the following Tour in 2023, when he cracked completely on the mighty Col de la Loze, uttering the now famous words: “I'm gone, I’m dead”. He lost an enormous 5:47 to Vingegaard that day, and any chance of winning yellow. The Col de la Loze awaits again on stage 18.
Tadej Pogačar after stage 17 during the 2023 Tour de France when he lost 5:47 on the Col de la Loze
That may serve as a reminder not only to fans and rivals that Pogačar can be beaten but also to Pogačar himself. Might that also give him pause for thought regarding attempting the Giro d’Italia again? Last year, he defied received wisdom by becoming the first man in 26 years to win the Tour/Giro double, and did so without any signs of trouble or tiredness. Such an achievement may have convinced him to attempt it again, and something he hasn’t up until now ruled out, saying recently that he wanted to ride two Grand Tours, but not specifying which two. But the severity of this year’s Tour, and it's back-loaded nature and many high mountains, does appear to be the kind of race that will require fresh legs, and not those fatigued by having already done a Grand Tour beforehand.
In any case, another chapter in the epic Pogačar and Vingegaard rivalry looks on the cards for the 2025 Tour de France, with many a grand mountain in the high Pyrenees and Alps set to be the stage. Whether these battlegrounds will be sights for Pogačar’s redemption from bad memories or a repeat of his former falterings, could be the main narrative.
