Tour de France 2024 stage 16 preview - the final sprint

Date: Tuesday July 16, 2024
Distance: 189km
Start location: Gruissan
Finish location: Nîmes
Start time: 13:05 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:31 CET 

The riders will start the third and final week with a sense of déjà vu from when the Tour started in Italy over a fortnight ago. Today’s stage will finish in Nîmes, which almost feels more Italian than French having been a key part of the Roman Empire, the legacy of which can be seen in the many preserved buildings that decorate the town. Founded in the second century BC on the Via Domitia to connect Italy to Spain, it underwent a substantive building program under the reign of Augustus, and was a prosperous stronghold until the third century when Barbarian invasions curtailed its importance.  

What sets Nîmes apart from many other similar Roman settlements is how many of the old buildings are still standing. The Maison Carrée, for instance, is considered to be the best-preserved Roman temple of anywhere in the world outside of Rome itself, built by Augustus to commemorate his adopted heirs Gaius and Lucius Caesar, and standing now as an astonishing throwback to the ancient world. Then there’s the Magnes Tower that overlooks the city from Mont Cavalier where the city walls once stood; and perhaps the jewel in the crown as the Arena of Nîmes, the huge, beautifully symmetrical amphitheatre dating to the first century BC when it was the site of gladiatorial combat, and was restored in the 19th century to its current form having previously been repurposed as a fortified village. 

This will be the 20th time Nîmes has hosted a finish of a Tour de France stage, and it has tended to see bunch sprints. Nils Politt might have bucked the trend last time in 2021 by winning from a break, but the three preceding finishes all ended in large bunch finishes won by esteemed fastmen Caleb Ewan (2019), Alexander Kristoff (2014, albeit having only caught the tearful day-long escapee Jack Bauer mere metres from the line) and Mark Cavendish (2008). The parcours today is even flatter than on those occasions, with just the one small categorised climb halfway through a transitional stage designed to bring the riders from the Pyrenees to the Alps, and therefore another bunch sprint looks likely — a sprint that would all but certainly be last of this year’s edition. 

The one factor that could disrupt the race are strong winds. This part of France is at the mercy of the mighty mistral wind that blows from the Gulf of Lion, and has been responsible for two of the most dramatic days of crosswind action in recent Tour de France memory. In 2016, we were treated to the extraordinary sight Peter Sagan in the green jersey and Chris Froome in the yellow jersey working together along with their respective teammates Geraint Thomas and Maciej Bodnar to go clear in the blustery final kilometres, Sagan taking the stage and Froome gaining some unexpected time; and in 2009 Mark Cavendish won after his Columbia-HTC team shredded the peloton to pieces in the wind, while the brewing civil war between Alberto Contador and his new Astana teammate Lance Armstrong intensified as the latter was caught out on the wrong side of a split — though Contador would have the last laugh by ultimately winning the Tour. 

Route profile sourced via ASO

Contenders

After two gruelling days in the Pyrenees, the peloton would have been relieved to take a rest day from what has been a particularly attritional second week of the Tour de France. The sprinters wll be doubly pleased that on the resumption of racing they will get an opportunity at a stage win – potentially their last.

However, that all depends how the stage is raced and, given the tired legs and the number of puncheurs and breakaway riders who have yet to get anything from this Tour, we could see an attacking start to the race to make the escape group.

If the sprinters get their opportunity then there are some outstanding favourites for victory. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has looked in excellent form as the race has gone on, now with two stage wins. His main rival will likely be green jersey wearer Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), who will hope to wrap up that competition with a fourth stage victory.

Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-Alula) and Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) are both stage winners at this race, and will hope to fare better in this final sprint opportunity than they have in the more recent bunch finishes.

Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto Dstny), Sam Bennett (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale), and Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B) have all placed well in some of the previous sprints, but have looked someway off contesting for stage honours. They'll hope for a change in fortunes in this final chance of the race.

Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) has perhaps been missing his top form as he works his way back from injury, but has nevertheless been well in the mix for the sprint stages and will no doubt try again here.

There are numerous candidates for the breakaway should one buck the trend of this Tour and be allowed to escape in earnest. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Decuninck) has looked more and more active, while the likes of Davide Ballerini (Astana Qazaqstan), Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Victor Campenaerts and Brent Van Moer (both Lotto Dstny), Laurenz Rex (Intermarché-Wanty), and the insatiable Jonas Abrahamsen (UnoX-Mobility), could all be potential contenders from a break.

Stage 16 winner prediction

We think the stage will culminate in a sprint, and Jasper Philipsen will take his third win of the race.