Date: Saturday July 13, 2024
Distance: 152km
Start location: Pau
Finish location: Saint-Larry-Soulan (Pla d’Adet)
Start time: 13:05 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:17 CET
The first two weeks of this year’s Tour de France have posed plenty of questions for those who reckon they’ve got what it takes to compete for the yellow jersey, from the hills of Tuscany and Alpine stage during the first week, to the time trial in Burgundy and climbs of the Massif Central. Yet while these stages will have given a sense of who the strongest riders are, and established a hierarchy with considerable time gaps, that will all count for nothing if they can’t perform on today’s visit to the Pyrenees.
That’s because stage 14 will be the first proper mountaintop finish of the race, and therefore, a first example of the terrain and format of stages where Tours are generally won and lost. Large Alpine mountains might have been tackled during stage four, and late, smaller hills on other days, but it’s big summit finishes like this that really sort the genuine GC candidates from the pretenders, and where definitive time gaps can open up. And as the first of four mountain top finishes from here until the finish in Nice, this will set the pattern for the rest of the race, with the riders who excel here likely to continue to do so into the final week.
The setting for stage 14’s summit finish will be Pla d’Adet, and it’s a hard one. The riders are plunged into the red right from the off, with the most difficult, double-digit gradients coming in the first 3km, and though the slope eases off a little for the remaining 7.5km of the climb, it’s still steep enough to average 7.9%. It’s a climb with a lot of history, too. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the first of its 10 Tour appearances in 1974, when a 38-year-old Raymond Poulidor became what remains the second oldest winner of a Tour de France stage, dropping Eddy Merckx in the process. The Frenchman wasn’t able to defeat Merckx on GC, settling instead for the seventh podium finish of his career while Merckx secured his fifth yellow jersey, but to have spanned two eras as a rival both to Jacques Anquetil and Merckx testifies to the extraordinary longevity of his career.
Prior to Pla d’Adet, the riders must conquer two other big Pyrenean summits, the iconic Col du Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d’Ancizan. As one of the Tour’s great climbs, the Tourmalet is never to be missed, but, peaked 62km from the finish, its purpose this time will be to wear down the legs of GC rather than ignite attacks from them. But it will play a big role in races within the race, both in terms of which climbers can get up ahead on the road to put themselves in a position to win the stage from the break, and for the big haul of KOM points on offer — or both, as was the case the last time the Tour finished atop Pla d’Adet in 2014, when Rafał Majka won while wearing the polka-dot jersey.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
With two back-to-back stages in the Pyrenees and tomorrow’s stage looking even harder than today’s, we are expecting the GC contenders to keep it cool over the three categorised climbs in this first stage. However, we can never say never with the top three GC rivals as we’ve seen this race – Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) attacking on the race’s gravel stage, then Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) battling it out for the victory on the race’s lumpy stage 11. Only 1:14 stands between Pogačar in pole position and Vingegaard in third, and the mountains are where these gaps can grow or close.
UAE Team Emirates raced very aggressively in the only other mountain test so far this race, with Pogačar taking the stage win. But Vingegaard proved he can beat Pogačar, even on his least favourable terrain, so the first real battle in the mountains after almost two weeks of racing will provide a clearer picture of who is looking the strongest. Outside of the big three is João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates), who’ll be working for their man in yellow after losing Juan Ayuso to illness, and Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers), who has looked strong so far. The Ineos rider will want to crack the podium, so we could see attacks from him to close the 3:26 gap that stands between him and third place. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) are just inside the top 10 and will want to climb a few places in the standings.
After losing their GC leader to two crashes on stages 11 and 12, Jai Hindley could look to redeem the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's Tour by going for the stage win. He is good enough to be a GC contender himself but was tasked with being a super domestique this year for Primož Roglič. However, with no GC to look after and only almost 20 minutes down on GC, this could be a stage hunting opportunity for the Australian.
If the big three riders and their teams let the breakaway go, it’ll be those further down on the GC who thrive in the mountains that will want to use this day as an opportunity to secure a stage win. Romain Bardet (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL) kicked off his last Tour de France with a stage win in Rimini alongside his teammate Frank van den Broek. He is excellent in the mountains, and he could attempt to be in the break on this stage, too. Wout Poels (Bahrain-Victorious) is also another strong climber who will be a contender for this stage. Bahrain lost their main GC rider, Pello Bilbao, to illness, as well as Fred Wright, so Poels will be hoping he can achieve a win here to help boost morale in the team.
Simon Yates (Jayco Alula) has struggled in the GC so far this Tour, but he is better suited to the high mountains and could be a contender for this stage. Jayco Alula has yet to produce any victories, so this could be a prime opportunity for the British rider to change that. Another Brit who could challenge for the win is Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers). He came close to winning on stage nine but was pipped to the post in the final sprint. We know he can climb well on his day, having won atop the legendary Alpe d’Huez in 2022, and with another iconic Tour climb on the menu in the form of the Tourmalet, we might see him try and get in the breakaway.
EF Education-EasyPost have a couple of options in Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy, both of whom have been very active in the race so far.
So far this race, we haven’t seen much of Lenny Martinez (Groupama-FDJ), but he is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Summit finishes are his bread and butter, so he will be one to watch for the stage win. Groupama-FDJ also have David Gaudu, Romain Grégoire, and Valentin Madouas.
Stage 14 winner prediction
We are placing our bets on the man in yellow, Tadej Pogačar.
