Tour de France 2024 predictions: Who will stand out in cycling's biggest race?

The 2024 Tour de France promises to be a race for the ages, with the four best general classification riders all lining up with realistic aspirations of winning the yellow jersey.

Beginning in the Italian city of Florence – the first ever time Italy has hosted the start of the race – the Tour’s big battles this July will be held in the Alps, with the fearsome Col du Galibier having to be crossed as early as stage four and the highest road in Europe, the Cime de la Bonette, forming part of the queen stage. There is also a day out on gravel, a weekend of high mountains in the Pyrenees, and, in a break from tradition, the race will finish with a mountainous individual time trial from Monaco to Nice.

As well as the fight for the maillot jaune, Mark Cavendish is aiming for history in his search to win a record-breaking 35th Tour stage. These are our predictions of the winners and losers of the 111th edition of the Tour de France.

Yellow jersey winner

Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič, Remco Evenepoel: take your pick as to who will win this year’s race. Between the four of them, they have won nine of the last 12 Grand Tours, with both Pogačar and Vingegaard counting two Tour titles on their palmarès.

Visma-Lease a Bike’s Vingegaard has found a way to make Pogačar suffer in the high mountains en-route to winning the last two Tours, but the Dane hasn’t raced since suffering a punctured lung among other injuries at April’s Itzulia Basque Country. Despite spending a month training at altitude before the Tour, his form and condition is a mystery.

Vingegaard beat Pogačar in last year's edition of the Tour (Image by Zac Williams/SWPix)

Pogačar, meanwhile, won May’s Giro d’Italia by almost 10 minutes, and the Slovenian superstar appears to be in his best ever shape. Due to his spring performances and Vingegaard’s injury, most pundits, including us here at Rouleur, are predicting that the UAE Team Emirates man will become the first rider to win the Giro and Tour de France in the same calendar year since Marco Pantani in 1998.

Both Bora-Hansgrohe’s Roglič and Soudal–Quick-Step’s Evenepoel also crashed out of the Itzulia Basque Country, Roglič suffering multiple abrasions and wounds, and Evenepoel coming off worse with a broken collarbone. The duo returned to racing at June’s Critérium du Dauphiné, Roglič winning two stages and the overall title, and Evenepoel triumphing in the individual time trial. 

Roglič, who famously lost the 2020 Tour to his compatriot Pogačar on the penultimate day, was in better form than Evenepoel, but the Slovenian showed once again on the race’s final day that he is vulnerable to being attacked. Similarly for Evenepoel, there are significant doubts about his ability to keep pace in the high mountains.

Read more: Who will win this year's yellow jersey?

Our prediction is that all four riders will win at least one stage each, possibly many more – a bold bet is that Evenepoel will take yellow after the stage seven time trial and not lose it until stage 19 – but it will take a monumental effort to deny Pogačar his third yellow jersey.

Best sprinter

Jasper Philipsen has been the race’s fastest sprinter in each of the last two editions, and though the Belgian hasn’t been as dominant this season, winning only four times, it is widely accepted that the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider is the fastest man around right now. Up to eight stages could go the way of the sprinters, and it’s not inconceivable that Philipsen could match or better his win tally of four victories from 2023.

A rider who only needs one victory to go home happy is Mark Cavendish. The Astana-Qazaqstan rider, 39, is racing his 15th and final Tour, knowing that he is only one win short of becoming the Tour’s outright stage wins record holder with 35. Philipsen is more powerful, but Cavendish has the experience and the best leadout train in the field, and the fairytale ending is not out of the question.

Read more: How Mark Cavendish has prepared for his Tour de France swansong

Rarely does one sprinter take a clean sweep of all the sprint stages, and also looking to pounce on any complacency or weakness from Philipsen will be Lidl-Trek’s Mads Pedersen, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale’s Sam Bennett and Intermarché-Wanty's Biniam Girmay.

Cavendish will be hunting down a stage win in this year's Tour (Image by James Startt)

Best debutant

Pinning on a Tour de France number is the dream of cyclists all around the world, and this year there are a number of high-profile riders making their debut in the Grand Boucle. Among them is the aforementioned Evenepoel, and one of his rivals in the mountains will be UAE Team Emirates’ Juan Ayuso.

Spaniard Ayuso finished third at the 2022 Vuelta a España aged just 19, and he is fancied to one day emulate his idol Alberto Contador and win the Tour. He has already won multiple stages of WorldTour races, and he has demonstrated an ability to time trial that matches his climbing prowess. He is riding the race in support of Pogačar, but Ayuso is good enough to finish on the podium, just like his teammate Adam Yates did 12 months ago.

A rider who won’t be excelling in the Alps and Pyrenees but on the flatter roads is Lotto Dstny’s Arnaud De Lie. The 22-year-old has repeatedly shown, since turning pro in 2022, that he can compete and beat much older rivals, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins a stage on debut.

Arnaud De Lie has continued to impress, but this will be his first Tour outing (Image by Zac Williams/SWPix)

As for the home fans, young Frenchmen Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) and Axel Laurance (Alpecin-Deceuninck) have enjoyed really impressive seasons so far and can expect to be in contention on the days that belong to the breakaway riders.

Breakaway specialists

Talking of which… there will be dozens of riders on the startline in Florence hoping and dreaming of coming away from the race with at least one stage win in their back pocket courtesy of a day out in the break. 

Maxim Van Gils of Lotto Dstny recently told Rouleur that he has circled five stages of interest, but the 24-year-old has become more of a marked man in recent months after a spring campaign that saw him podium in a number of the sport’s biggest one-day races. A wily, tactical climber, Van Gils also possesses a fast finish, which may come in handy if he takes other riders to the line with him.

Read more: The full 2024 Tour de France start list

EF Education-EasyPost’s Ben Healy is a rider in a similar mould to Van Gils, and the Irishman has hit form at the right time, taking a win in the recent Tour of Slovenia. It’s only the 23-year-old’s second Grand Tour, but he won a stage on debut at last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he will be dangerous on all mountainous days.

Healy's first Grand Tour was the Giro d'Italia in 2023 (Image by Zac Williams/SWPix)

Three riders who also all speak English as their mother tongue will be among the favourites on any day that they find themselves in the leading group: the Israel-Premier Tech pairing of Britain’s Stevie Williams and Canada’s Derek Gee, and Visma-Lease a Bike’s Matteo Jorgensen. The latter has had a stellar first season with the Dutch team, and if the American is permitted his own opportunities then he is likely to take them.

Most successful team

A prize is awarded at the Tour for the team with lowest cumulative time across the entire race, but rarely do teams ever set out to top the classification. That said, the race for the title already looks like a foregone conclusion, with UAE Team Emirates boasting six genuine GC riders in their own right in their eight-man roster. What’s more, the Emirati team are forecast to win multiple stages via Pogačar. 

Read more: Is a UAE Team Emirates podium sweep possible?

Alpecin-Deceuninck will also harbour similar stage-amassing ambitions: alongside Philipsen, they have the reigning world champion Mathieu van der Poel, and the duo have formed a devastating double team in recent times. 

Alpecin-Deceuninck will be coming to this Tour confident in their abilities to take stage wins (Image by SWPix.com)

Dutiful domestique 

Anyone of Pogačar’s helpers could take home the tag as the race’s best domestique, yet managing the different ambitions and personalities might not be plain-sailing for team management. Visma-Lease a Bike, however, know that they can rely on the selflessness of Sepp Kuss, the winner of last year’s Vuelta a España. The American has been the sport’s best super-domestique over the past five seasons, particularly in the high mountains, and he will be crucial to Jonas Vingegaard defending his crown. Ditto Michał Kwiatkowski at Ineos Grenadiers: the former world champion is racing his 10th Tour, and he will be depended upon to support the aspirations of Carlos Rodríguez, Egan Bernal and Tom Pidcock.

Intrigue also surrounds Soudal–Quick-Step’s Mikel Landa, the hothead fan favourite, 34, who has twice finished fourth at the Tour, but is now being asked to play second fiddle to Evenepoel. How that will unfold is one of the race’s many subplots.

*Cover image by SWPix.com