You can picture Primož Roglič and the other riders gunning for a podium finish waking up in their hotel in Andalusia this morning in something of a daze, asking themselves: did that really happen yesterday? And: have we made a huge, and potentially irreversible, mistake?
While Roglič said before yesterday’s stage at the Vuelta a España that he would be happy to lend his red jersey to another, non-threatening rider for a few days via the breakaway on stage six, and, therefore, relieve his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe of the draining responsibility of controlling the race, he can’t possibly have meant someone with the credentials of Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), and certainly not hand him an almost five-minute lead on GC. But that’s the situation we’re in following the Australian’s stunning ride, in which he powered away from the breakaway on stage six to solo to victory a whole 4:33 ahead of the next strongest rider from the break, Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech) in second, and a huge 6:31 ahead of the group of favourites — turning the whole Vuelta topsy-turvy.
You might have thought there would be more concern about letting as dangerous a rider as O’Connor gain so much time from a first-week breakaway, given that, as recently as 12 months ago, the foundations of Sepp Kuss’s overall victory were laid in very much the same way. His coup even came at the same point of the race, on stage six, when he also won a stage from the breakaway. In doing so, he propelled himself up to second place on GC before taking the red jersey two days later and subsequently retaining that jersey all the way to Madrid. Bearing in mind that Kuss only gained 3:24 on Remco Evenepoel in the red jersey that day, little more than half of O’Connor’s gains, and the possibility of the Australian repeating Kuss’s feat looks very feasible.
Even O’Connor’s own history should have raised more alarm bells. At the 2021 Tour de France, he bounced back from an opening week crash to get into the break on stage nine, then powered away on the final summit finish to Tignes to win the stage by over five minutes. The result catapulted him from 14th to second (Tadej Pogačar still led him by two minutes). Still, he managed to hang around the top echelons of the GC for the rest of the race, only being overtaken by Jonas Vingegaard and Richard Carapaz to finish fourth overall.
O’Connor mentioned the feeling of “déjà vu” from that race three years ago when asked during his post-stage interview whether he felt he could hang on to the red jersey for a long time. “Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how I go in Cazorla (stage eight’s uphill finish), and Granada (stage nine’s mountain). But it’s an excellent opportunity, and I’m just going to savour it as much as I can.”
So, could O’Connor win the red jersey? In his interview, he sounded like a man not getting too far ahead of himself and wanting to relish the short-term joy of leading the race. “It’s going to be a once-in-a-lifetime experience, maybe. So I'm going to enjoy every moment.”
But his ride on stage six also suggested that he’s in scintillating form, which did not appear to be the case two days ago on Pico Villuercas, where he conceded over a minute, a sub-par performance that might explain why the GC favourites were happy to allow him so much leeway. “Today was noticeably less hot,” explained O’Connor at the finish. “Still hot, but not 42 degrees! I enjoyed today a lot.” If his previous shortcomings were a consequence of the heat rather than his form, then he might have the legs to compete with the top GC contenders after all.
Heat could yet be one of the obstacles standing in his way of winning the Vuelta, though. Things ought to cool down once we transfer north up the country at the end of week one, but the fact he namechecked both the Cazorla and Granada stages in his interview suggests he’s still anxious about the potential for searing temperatures here in Andalusia. Those might also be the stages where he pays most from his huge effort on yesterday's stage, given that he only has one full day to recover between now and stage eight’s uphill finish. Neither of those stages are too demanding, though, where you’d usually expect the top GC favourites to finish together. If he can stay in the group of favourites during both and thus end the first week with his 4:51 lead intact, then, he could start to grow more confident.
Photo by Zac Williams/SWPix
That said, there still is an awful lot of racing to come in the second and third weeks. We’re yet to even reach the proper mountains, and the very biggest summit finishes, where the serious time gaps can be made, don’t come until towards the end of the second week. And this being the Vuelta a España, there is an abundance of summit finishes to get through — so far, they’ve only done two out of nine. Add to that the final time trial (a discipline O’Connor is competent in, but hardly a specialist), and there is plenty of scope to lose time.
Having to lead the race will also put a significant strain on O'Connor's Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team. This is a team that has never once won a Grand Tour in its 32-year-history, and, though they’ve shown significant improvement this year, and will have felt going into the race that a podium finish was a possibility, they did not equip themselves to defend the red jersey for so long. Felix Gall has the ability and seemingly the form to provide great support in the mountains, while Valentin Paret-Peintre, Victor Lafay and Bruno Armirail are all strong riders who could do a good job, but the line-up as a whole falls short of the quality boasted by heavyweights like Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, UAE Team Emirates, and Visma-Lease a Bike.
Another problem for O’Connor is that, throughout his career, he has tended to be inconsistent. He’s typically blown hot and cold at Grand Tours, and behind-the-scenes insight provided by the Unchained documentary aired on Netflix for the last two years suggested that he’s a rider whose performances are often shaped by confidence. On one hand, he’s now in a situation of unprecedented pressure and could struggle to ride to such demands. But on the other hand, such a brilliant performance and the prestige that comes with wearing the red jersey might alternatively provide him with a confidence boost that propels him to flourish. You sense that what happens next could be as much about the Australian’s mentality as much as it is about his legs. Whichever turns out to be the case, this Vuelta is now in an intriguing balance, and O’Connor’s quest to hold onto the red jersey for as long as possible promises to make for a great story.
*Cover image by Unipublic/Sprint Cycling Agency
