A reliable rule of thumb when determining which riders will go well at the Vuelta a España is to consider how they performed at the Tour de France. Whereas the GC is often contested by riders who either were in top form at the Tour, or didn't even ride it at all, fatigue tends to catch up with those who excelled in France during July.
Much was made of Tadej Pogačar’s achievement in becoming the first rider to win the Giro/Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998, it should also be remembered that only one man (Chris Froome in 2017) managed the Tour/Vuelta double in that time. Whether for the Giro and the Tour, or the Tour and the Vuelta, peaking for back-to-back Grand Tours is no easy task.
In Tuesday’s first summit finish of the Vuelta, the excursions of riding hard at the Tour de France seemed to take its toll on several of the riders who had been expected to be competing for GC. Though yellow jersey winner Pogačar isn't here to try and win a historic third back-to-back Grand Tours, one of the key UAE Team Emirates teammates from his triumphant Tour line-up, Adam Yates, was one particularly high-profile overall contenders to appear tired from his efforts at that race. The Slovenian’s absence has offered Yates a rare chance to lead the team at a Grand Tour, but he was one of many dropped on the finishing climb of Pico Villuercas. While the 1:29 he lost to stage winner Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) isn't fatal, it does suggest he's lacking the freshness and form to challenge for the red jersey, unless he rediscovers his form quickly.
Another Tour de France protagonist who lost significant time today was Carlos Rodríguez. The Spaniard had appeared to be tiring badly during the Tour, slipping from fifth in the second week to seventh at the finish, and on Pico Villuercas looked in worse shape still. He was the 21st rider to the finish, conceding 51 seconds to Roglič, which, much like Yates, won't dump him out of contention just yet, and indeed pits him in a much better position than Ineos Grenadiers co-leader Thymen Arensman, who lost a more serious 2:35. But the early signs don't look good.
Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), by contrast, did lose enough time to already be out of contention. The Italian had to dig deep for his career-high 11th place at the Tour de France, a result that suggested he could potentially compete for GC at a Grand Tour, especially one like the Vuelta. But not this Vuelta - he came home a whole 7:40 down.
It wasn't just those who were competing for GC at the Tour who looked tired today - so did some who starred in that race in other ways. Richard Carapaz’s electrifying end to that race, in which he won a stage in the Alps and picked up enough points to win King of the Mountains, raised hopes in his EF Education-EasyPost team that he was returning back to his best, and might be able to target the red jersey at the Vuelta. They’ll be less confident after this stage, in which he laboured to finish 25th, coming in alongside Adam Yates to lose 1:29.
Not every Tour star was hindered by fatigue, however. Having ridden arguably the race of his life at the Tour de France to finish fourth, off the back of a very strong second-place overall at the Tour de Suisse, you might have expected João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) to be slowing down by now. But the Portuguese has during his few years as a pro shown an almost unique consistency to be in form for every race he participates in, as if he understands his body well enough to only race when in top shape, much like his notorious ability to know how to pace his efforts perfectly up a climb. That was again the case today, as, despite being dropped earlier on the climb, he characteristically paced himself back into the elite group of seven GC contenders
Also in that septet was the man who finished one place behind Almeida at the Tour, Mikel Landa. The Spaniard has long said that he planned to target GC at his home Grand Tour after first playing a support role for Soudal–Quick-Step teammate Remco Evenepoel at the Tour, but after he himself went much better than expected and registered a high fifth-place finish, it seemed doubtful that he could peak in time again - especially considering how, throughout the entirety of his long career, he has only once made the top 10 in two Grand Tours during the same season. But the evidence from today is that he might be poised to buck that trend, and pose a serious threat to the red jersey.
The rest of that elite seven were made up of riders who either rode the Tour notably down on their best, or skipped the race altogether. Roglič of course had to pull out of the Tour with injury, and today suggested that whatever he lacked in fitness, he made up for with fresh legs.
Enric Mas (Movistar) has long been a rider to save his peak for the Vuelta, bettering his result from the Tour de France here in each of the last three years. He looks set to do the same again for a fourth successive year, placing fourth on stage four having finished well down in 19th at last month’s Tour. The disappointment Felix Gall (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale) might have felt at having followed his breakthrough eighth place at last year’s Tour with 14th this time could quickly be overcome, if his fifth-place on today's stage is a sign of things to come. And as for the other two riders in the group, Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Dstny) and Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), they both missed the Tour entirely, deciding, as inexperienced riders, to exclusively target the Vuelta instead. Based on their respective second and sixth place finishes today, they made the right choice, and could be on the brink of breakthrough races.
Theirs was the kind of performance that had been expected of Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike), considering that he has inadvertently ended up only racing the Vuelta after being ruled out of the Tour. But the form he appeared to be while winning the Vuelta a Burgos eluded him a little today, as he lost a little time to finish 11th at 28 seconds. As defending champion, he'll hope he can rediscover that form in the coming stages.
With almost three whole weeks of racing still to come, it's too early to say whether the GC hierarchy established today will continue, or if the riders form will fluctuate. But if today is anything to go by, it seems that few of the men who shone at the Tour will be competing for red this year.
